UST 10Y note (CBOT)
10-Year Treasury positioning
Price series: 10Y note futures (front month) · positions as of Tuesday Nov 3, 2026, published Friday Nov 6, 2026
This week · published Nov 6, 2026
10-Year Treasury, week of Nov 3, 2026: Leveraged funds sit at the 19th percentile of their 3-year range — near the most bearish of the past 3 years. They cut 35,035 net long contracts on the week. 8-week signal: no signal.
Signal log — Asset managers
Every past signal in this market, and what price did afterwards.
Every rolling 8-week window classified as a bullish or bearish divergence, or as convergence where price and positioning agree. Price change is in percent; net change is in contracts.
Each row covers one stretch of weekly reports: the % is the price change over that stretch, the net figure is the change in the group's net position, in contracts.
- Bullish divergenceAug 4, 2026 → Oct 20, 2026price -2.3% · net position +330,737 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendJul 28, 2026 → Sep 22, 2026price -2.9% · net position -80,580 contracts
- Bullish divergenceFeb 10, 2026 → Sep 15, 2026price -6.3% · net position +488,821 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendNov 25, 2025 → Jan 20, 2026price -1.5% · net position -364,559 contracts
- Convergence — healthy uptrendJun 3, 2025 → Sep 16, 2025price +2.6% · net position +142,601 contracts
- Bullish divergenceApr 1, 2025 → May 27, 2025price -2.1% · net position +237,662 contracts
- Convergence — healthy uptrendFeb 4, 2025 → Apr 1, 2025price +3.5% · net position +193,335 contracts
- Bearish divergenceDec 31, 2024 → Mar 4, 2025price +1.8% · net position -67,525 contracts
- Bullish divergenceNov 26, 2024 → Jan 28, 2025price -2.0% · net position +141,830 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendSep 24, 2024 → Dec 17, 2024price -5.0% · net position -144,813 contracts
- Bullish divergenceAug 27, 2024 → Nov 5, 2024price -2.4% · net position +159,748 contracts
- Convergence — healthy uptrendMay 21, 2024 → Sep 17, 2024price +5.6% · net position +322,178 contracts
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Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders — positions as of Tuesday, published the following Friday. All position figures are futures contracts unless the % of open interest view is selected. Positioning is a sentiment tool, not a timing signal. Not investment advice.