What is the 5-Year Treasury COT report?

It is the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders breakdown for UST 5Y note (CBOT): how many long and short futures contracts each group of large traders held as of the prior Tuesday, published the following Friday.

How do you read 5-Year Treasury net positioning?

Net position is long contracts minus short contracts for one trader group. A positive net means the group leans bullish; the weekly change matters more than the raw level.

What does the 5-Year Treasury COT index mean?

The COT index rescales a group's net position 0-100 against its own high and low over the chosen lookback. Above 80 is close to the most bullish that group has been; below 20 is close to the most bearish.

What is a bearish divergence in 5-Year Treasury?

A bearish divergence is 5Y note futures (front month) making new highs while the tracked trader group reduces its net long position — the rally is losing the sponsorship of the money that usually drives it.

UST 5Y note (CBOT)

5-Year Treasury positioning

Price series: 5Y note futures (front month) · positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026

Last weekly close · 5Y note futures (front month)

104.60

Asset managers net position (contracts)

2,788,449

No signalJul 21, 2026 → Sep 15, 2026 · 8-week window

Neither price nor positioning has moved enough this window to say anything.

Price vs positioning (contracts)

Price on top, and what the big traders were holding underneath it.

Price — 5Y note futures (front month)

Net position (contracts) — Net position = long contracts minus short contracts. Above the zero line = net long.

Heads up: leveraged-fund shorts in Treasury futures are largely the hedge leg of the cash-futures basis trade, not a directional bet against bonds. Read the level as crowded leverage, and use asset managers for a directional read. Why this matters →

Signal classification tracks bullish divergencebearish divergenceconvergence (healthy trend)

COT Index

0–100 · vs last 3 years

How extreme today's positioning is compared with this group's own history.

Each group's current net position, rescaled 0–100 against its own high and low over the selected lookback. 0 = most bearish it has been in that window, 100 = most bullish. Unitless by design, so markets of very different sizes can be compared.

Non-commercial (large specs)100 · stretched long

Near the most bullish this group has been in the window.

Commercial (hedgers)1 · stretched short

Near the most bearish this group has been in the window.

Asset managers53 · neutral

Middle of its own historical range — nothing stretched.

Leveraged funds80 · stretched long

Near the most bullish this group has been in the window.

0 · most bearish50 · mid-range100 · most bullish

COT Index = ((Current − Min) / (Max − Min)) × 100, over the last 3 years

Method credit: the 0–100 normalization goes back to Larry Williams' COT work in the 1980s and was developed and popularized by Stephen Briese, author of The Commitments of Traders Bible.

Asset managers — COT index history (0–100, rolling 3 years window)

Disagreement Index

contracts · index 0–100

How far apart two trader groups are right now.

Gap = group A's net position minus group B's, measured in contracts. The Disagreement Index rescales that difference 0–100 against its own last 3 years: 0 = the two groups as close together as they get, 100 = as far apart as they get.

Disagreement Index · vs last 3 years

Disagreement sits in its normal historical range — nothing stretched.

Current gap (contracts)

-4,775,377 contracts

Left axis: gap in contracts (positive = Leveraged funds is more net long than Asset managers). Right axis: disagreement index, 0–100. Gap tracks Leveraged funds − Asset managers.

Latest week by category

What each trader group was holding in the most recent report.

Positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026, compared with the prior weekly report. Positive net = net long; negative net = net short. COT index is measured over the last 3 years.

Category	Long (contracts)	Short (contracts)	Net (contracts)	Weekly change (contracts)	COT index (0–100, 3y)
Non-commercial (large specs)	682,423	1,679,789	-997,366	+270,127	100
Commercial (hedgers)	5,074,674	4,110,294	964,380	-251,399	1
Asset managers	3,823,228	1,034,779	2,788,449	-58,912	53
Leveraged funds	537,093	2,524,021	-1,986,928	+79,361	80

Signal log — Asset managers

Every past signal in this market, and what price did afterwards.

Every rolling 8-week window classified as a bullish or bearish divergence, or as convergence where price and positioning agree. Price change is in percent; net change is in contracts.

Each row covers one stretch of weekly reports: the % is the price change over that stretch, the net figure is the change in the group's net position, in contracts.

Convergence — healthy downtrendFeb 24, 2026 → Apr 21, 2026price -1.6% · net position -579,458 contracts
Convergence — healthy uptrendJan 7, 2025 → Mar 18, 2025price +2.3% · net position +101,071 contracts
Bullish divergenceSep 17, 2024 → Nov 19, 2024price -3.1% · net position +149,548 contracts
Convergence — healthy uptrendApr 23, 2024 → Sep 17, 2024price +4.8% · net position +664,921 contracts
Bullish divergenceFeb 27, 2024 → May 21, 2024price -1.4% · net position +827,584 contracts
Convergence — healthy downtrendDec 19, 2023 → Feb 20, 2024price -1.6% · net position -327,805 contracts
Convergence — healthy uptrendNov 21, 2023 → Jan 16, 2024price +2.0% · net position +71,603 contracts
Bearish divergenceNov 7, 2023 → Jan 2, 2024price +2.8% · net position -117,496 contracts
Convergence — healthy uptrendOct 3, 2023 → Dec 19, 2023price +3.3% · net position +266,702 contracts

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders — positions as of Tuesday, published the following Friday. All position figures are futures contracts unless the % of open interest view is selected. Positioning is a sentiment tool, not a timing signal. Not investment advice.