UST bond (CBOT)
30-Year Treasury Bond positioning
Price series: T-bond futures (front month) · positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026
Neither price nor positioning has moved enough this window to say anything.
Price vs positioning (contracts)
Price on top, and what the big traders were holding underneath it.
Heads up: leveraged-fund shorts in Treasury futures are largely the hedge leg of the cash-futures basis trade, not a directional bet against bonds. Read the level as crowded leverage, and use asset managers for a directional read. Why this matters →
COT Index
0–100 · vs last 3 yearsHow extreme today's positioning is compared with this group's own history.
Each group's current net position, rescaled 0–100 against its own high and low over the selected lookback. 0 = most bearish it has been in that window, 100 = most bullish. Unitless by design, so markets of very different sizes can be compared.
Near the most bearish this group has been in the window.
Near the most bullish this group has been in the window.
Leaning short, but not yet at an extreme.
Near the most bullish this group has been in the window.
COT Index = ((Current − Min) / (Max − Min)) × 100, over the last 3 years
Method credit: the 0–100 normalization goes back to Larry Williams' COT work in the 1980s and was developed and popularized by Stephen Briese, author of The Commitments of Traders Bible.
Disagreement Index
contracts · index 0–100How far apart two trader groups are right now.
Gap = group A's net position minus group B's, measured in contracts. The Disagreement Index rescales that difference 0–100 against its own last 3 years: 0 = the two groups as close together as they get, 100 = as far apart as they get.
The two groups are pulling apart, above their usual range.
Left axis: gap in contracts (positive = Leveraged funds is more net long than Asset managers). Right axis: disagreement index, 0–100. Gap tracks Leveraged funds − Asset managers.
Latest week by category
What each trader group was holding in the most recent report.
Positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026, compared with the prior weekly report. Positive net = net long; negative net = net short. COT index is measured over the last 3 years.
| Category | Long (contracts) | Short (contracts) | Net (contracts) | Weekly change (contracts) | COT index (0–100, 3y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-commercial (large specs) | 176,241 | 379,398 | -203,157 | -2,640 | 13 |
| Commercial (hedgers) | 1,443,406 | 1,302,243 | 141,163 | +3,251 | 82 |
| Asset managers | 1,096,888 | 636,226 | 460,662 | -72,005 | 31 |
| Leveraged funds | 203,681 | 415,416 | -211,735 | +65,230 | 91 |
Signal log — Asset managers
Every past signal in this market, and what price did afterwards.
Every rolling 8-week window classified as a bullish or bearish divergence, or as convergence where price and positioning agree. Price change is in percent; net change is in contracts.
Each row covers one stretch of weekly reports: the % is the price change over that stretch, the net figure is the change in the group's net position, in contracts.
- Bullish divergenceMay 26, 2026 → Sep 1, 2026price -3.1% · net position +73,870 contracts
- Bullish divergenceMar 17, 2026 → May 12, 2026price -2.4% · net position +27,405 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendJan 20, 2026 → Apr 28, 2026price -2.0% · net position -101,807 contracts
- Bearish divergenceDec 16, 2025 → Feb 24, 2026price +2.5% · net position -38,191 contracts
- Bullish divergenceOct 14, 2025 → Jan 20, 2026price -2.6% · net position +42,677 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendOct 7, 2025 → Dec 2, 2025price -1.6% · net position -10,481 contracts
- Bearish divergenceAug 12, 2025 → Oct 21, 2025price +4.0% · net position -59,551 contracts
- Convergence — healthy uptrendJul 8, 2025 → Sep 9, 2025price +4.4% · net position +3,360 contracts
- Bearish divergenceJun 3, 2025 → Jul 29, 2025price +2.7% · net position -56,167 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendApr 22, 2025 → Jun 17, 2025price -1.8% · net position -107,469 contracts
- Bullish divergenceFeb 25, 2025 → May 20, 2025price -5.6% · net position +47,375 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendFeb 11, 2025 → Apr 8, 2025price -2.0% · net position -11,061 contracts
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders — positions as of Tuesday, published the following Friday. All position figures are futures contracts unless the % of open interest view is selected. Positioning is a sentiment tool, not a timing signal. Not investment advice.