What is the Ultra 10-Year COT report?

It is the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders breakdown for Ultra UST 10Y (CBOT): how many long and short futures contracts each group of large traders held as of the prior Tuesday, published the following Friday.

How do you read Ultra 10-Year net positioning?

Net position is long contracts minus short contracts for one trader group. A positive net means the group leans bullish; the weekly change matters more than the raw level.

What does the Ultra 10-Year COT index mean?

The COT index rescales a group's net position 0-100 against its own high and low over the chosen lookback. Above 80 is close to the most bullish that group has been; below 20 is close to the most bearish.

What is a bearish divergence in Ultra 10-Year?

A bearish divergence is Ultra 10Y futures (front month) making new highs while the tracked trader group reduces its net long position — the rally is losing the sponsorship of the money that usually drives it.

Ultra UST 10Y (CBOT)

Ultra 10-Year positioning

Price series: Ultra 10Y futures (front month) · positions as of Tuesday Jul 28, 2026, published Friday Jul 31, 2026

Last weekly close · Ultra 10Y futures (front month)

109.70

Asset managers net position (contracts)

709,907

Bullish divergenceJun 2, 2026 → Jul 28, 2026 · 8-week windowconfirmed by 2 categories

Price is falling while this group accumulates — where bottoms tend to form.

price -1.7% · asset managers net position +46,753 (contracts, over 8 weekly reports)

Price vs positioning (contracts)

Price on top, and what the big traders were holding underneath it.

Price — Ultra 10Y futures (front month)

Net position (contracts) — Net position = long contracts minus short contracts. Above the zero line = net long.

Signal classification tracks bullish divergencebearish divergenceconvergence (healthy trend)

COT Index

0–100 · vs last 3 years

How extreme today's positioning is compared with this group's own history.

Each group's current net position, rescaled 0–100 against its own high and low over the selected lookback. 0 = most bearish it has been in that window, 100 = most bullish. Unitless by design, so markets of very different sizes can be compared.

Non-commercial (large specs)77 · neutral

Leaning long, but not yet at an extreme.

Commercial (hedgers)26 · neutral

Leaning short, but not yet at an extreme.

Asset managers93 · stretched long

Near the most bullish this group has been in the window.

Leveraged funds17 · stretched short

Near the most bearish this group has been in the window.

0 · most bearish50 · mid-range100 · most bullish

COT Index = ((Current − Min) / (Max − Min)) × 100, over the last 3 years

Asset managers — COT index history (0–100, rolling 3 years window)

Gap & Gap Index

contracts · index 0–100

How far apart two trader groups are right now.

Gap = group A's net position minus group B's, measured in contracts. The Gap Index rescales that difference 0–100 against its own last 3 years: 0 = the two groups as close together as they get, 100 = as far apart as they get.

Gap Index · vs last 3 years

The two groups are as closely aligned as they have ever been.

Current gap (contracts)

-1,110,117 contracts

Left axis: gap in contracts (positive = Leveraged funds is more net long than Asset managers). Right axis: gap index, 0–100. Gap tracks Leveraged funds − Asset managers.

Latest week by category

What each trader group was holding in the most recent report.

Positions as of Tuesday Jul 28, 2026, published Friday Jul 31, 2026, compared with the prior weekly report. Positive net = net long; negative net = net short. COT index is measured over the last 3 years.

Category	Long (contracts)	Short (contracts)	Net (contracts)	Weekly change (contracts)	COT index (0–100, 3y)
Non-commercial (large specs)	227,721	344,022	-116,301	+21,331	77
Commercial (hedgers)	2,008,707	1,817,072	191,635	-29,090	26
Asset managers	1,276,732	566,825	709,907	-4,963	93
Leveraged funds	149,455	549,665	-400,210	-19,606	17

Signal log — Asset managers

Every past signal in this market, and what price did afterwards.

Every rolling 8-week window classified as a bullish or bearish divergence, or as convergence where price and positioning agree. Price change is in percent; net change is in contracts.

Each row covers one stretch of weekly reports: the % is the price change over that stretch, the net figure is the change in the group's net position, in contracts.

Bullish divergenceMay 26, 2026 → Jul 28, 2026price -2.4% · net position +113,811 contracts
Convergence — healthy downtrendMar 17, 2026 → Jun 9, 2026price -0.9% · net position -70,882 contracts
Bullish divergenceJan 27, 2026 → Apr 21, 2026price -0.5% · net position -27,158 contracts
Bearish divergenceDec 30, 2025 → Feb 24, 2026price +1.9% · net position -94,790 contracts
Bullish divergenceNov 25, 2025 → Jan 20, 2026price -1.9% · net position +57,288 contracts
Bearish divergenceJul 8, 2025 → Oct 14, 2025price +3.4% · net position -184,742 contracts
Convergence — healthy uptrendJun 3, 2025 → Jul 29, 2025price +2.2% · net position +75,967 contracts
Bullish divergenceMar 25, 2025 → May 27, 2025price -1.2% · net position +113,699 contracts
Bearish divergenceDec 24, 2024 → Apr 1, 2025price +5.0% · net position -92,941 contracts
Convergence — healthy downtrendDec 3, 2024 → Jan 28, 2025price -3.0% · net position -42,167 contracts
Bullish divergenceAug 27, 2024 → Jan 21, 2025price -5.4% · net position +335,329 contracts
Bearish divergenceJul 2, 2024 → Sep 17, 2024price +4.3% · net position -78,711 contracts

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders — positions as of Tuesday, published the following Friday. All position figures are futures contracts unless the % of open interest view is selected. Positioning is a sentiment tool, not a timing signal. Not investment advice.