Report week of Sep 29, 2026
COT report recap — week of Sep 29, 2026
The CFTC published its Commitments of Traders report for Sep 29, 2026. Across the 35 futures markets tracked here, the headline is where money actually moved this week and which groups are sitting at a three-year positioning extreme. 4 markets show a bearish divergence and 8 a bullish one; 15 show price and positioning moving together. Everything below is drawn straight from the CFTC's own weekly release, measured as of Tuesday's close.
Divergences by sector
Biggest weekly position changes
The largest week-on-week swings in net contracts. Big single-week shifts usually follow a macro event, an expiry, or a break of a well-watched level — they are the clearest sign of where large traders actually changed their mind.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -1,165,980 | +184,760 | 100 | No signal |
| 5-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -1,985,787 | -127,725 | 84 | Bullish divergence |
| 10-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -2,036,432 | -109,485 | 34 | Bullish divergence |
| 30-Year Treasury Bond | Leveraged funds | -251,395 | -89,343 | 79 | Bullish divergence |
| Natural Gas | Managed money | -132,799 | -67,252 | 10 | No signal |
| Ultra 10-Year | Leveraged funds | -328,471 | +67,207 | 33 | Bullish divergence |
| Corn | Managed money | 381,220 | -22,877 | 96 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Canadian Dollar | Leveraged funds | -69,644 | -22,783 | 37 | Bullish divergence |
| WTI Crude Oil | Managed money | 79,592 | -22,236 | 40 | No signal |
| Japanese Yen | Leveraged funds | -14,161 | -21,584 | 66 | No signal |
Positioning at a 3-year extreme (COT index above 90 or below 10)
A COT index above 90 means this group is about as long as it has been in three years; below 10 means about as short. Extremes mark crowded trades — they say who is already committed, not when the market turns.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -1,165,980 | +184,760 | 100 | No signal |
| Russell 2000 | Leveraged funds | -114,554 | -6,572 | 2 | Convergence — healthy downtrend |
| Copper | Managed money | 78,058 | -4,464 | 96 | No signal |
| Soybeans | Managed money | 246,558 | -18,601 | 96 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Sugar #11 | Managed money | 218,336 | +1,707 | 96 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Corn | Managed money | 381,220 | -22,877 | 96 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| RBOB Gasoline | Managed money | 94,186 | -1,852 | 94 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Cocoa | Managed money | -16,022 | +384 | 7 | Convergence — healthy downtrend |
| Australian Dollar | Leveraged funds | 60,592 | +1,866 | 92 | Bullish divergence |
| Bitcoin | Leveraged funds | -6,856 | +1,097 | 91 | No signal |
Bearish divergences — price up, big money stepping back
Price has been climbing while the trend-following crowd trimmed or reversed their net long. That gap is a warning, not a sell trigger: it says the rally is running with less institutional backing than it looks.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | Leveraged funds | -7,467 | +7,548 | 85 | Bearish divergence |
| Nikkei 225 | Leveraged funds | -313 | -1,111 | 27 | Bearish divergence |
| US Dollar Index | Leveraged funds | 361 | +4,856 | 49 | Bearish divergence |
| Ether | Leveraged funds | -8,083 | +2,534 | 62 | Bearish divergence |
Bullish divergences — price down, big money building
Price has been falling while large speculators added to their net long. Historically this is where washed-out moves have found a floor, though it can persist for weeks before price turns.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -1,985,787 | -127,725 | 84 | Bullish divergence |
| 10-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -2,036,432 | -109,485 | 34 | Bullish divergence |
| Ultra 10-Year | Leveraged funds | -328,471 | +67,207 | 33 | Bullish divergence |
| 30-Year Treasury Bond | Leveraged funds | -251,395 | -89,343 | 79 | Bullish divergence |
| Euro FX | Leveraged funds | -39,265 | -12,571 | 21 | Bullish divergence |
| Canadian Dollar | Leveraged funds | -69,644 | -22,783 | 37 | Bullish divergence |
| Australian Dollar | Leveraged funds | 60,592 | +1,866 | 92 | Bullish divergence |
| Mexican Peso | Leveraged funds | 80,587 | +1,399 | 91 | Bullish divergence |
New to the COT report?
The guide explains who the trader groups are, what net position means, and how the COT index and disagreement index are calculated.
Read the guide →Positioning is measured as of Tuesday and released Friday, so it always lags price. Nothing here is investment advice.