What is the Cocoa COT report?

It is the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders breakdown for Cocoa (ICE US): how many long and short futures contracts each group of large traders held as of the prior Tuesday, published the following Friday.

How do you read Cocoa net positioning?

Net position is long contracts minus short contracts for one trader group. A positive net means the group leans bullish; the weekly change matters more than the raw level.

What does the Cocoa COT index mean?

The COT index rescales a group's net position 0-100 against its own high and low over the chosen lookback. Above 80 is close to the most bullish that group has been; below 20 is close to the most bearish.

What is a bearish divergence in Cocoa?

A bearish divergence is Cocoa futures (front month) making new highs while the tracked trader group reduces its net long position — the rally is losing the sponsorship of the money that usually drives it.

Cocoa (ICE US)

Cocoa positioning

Price series: Cocoa futures (front month) · positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026

Last weekly close · Cocoa futures (front month)

5,772

Managed money net position (contracts)

-9,539

No signalJul 21, 2026 → Sep 15, 2026 · 8-week window

Neither price nor positioning has moved enough this window to say anything.

Price vs positioning (contracts)

Price on top, and what the big traders were holding underneath it.

Price — Cocoa futures (front month)

Net position (contracts) — Net position = long contracts minus short contracts. Above the zero line = net long.

Signal classification tracks bullish divergencebearish divergenceconvergence (healthy trend)

COT Index

0–100 · vs last 3 years

How extreme today's positioning is compared with this group's own history.

Each group's current net position, rescaled 0–100 against its own high and low over the selected lookback. 0 = most bearish it has been in that window, 100 = most bullish. Unitless by design, so markets of very different sizes can be compared.

Non-commercial (large specs)16 · stretched short

Near the most bearish this group has been in the window.

Commercial (hedgers)80 · stretched long

Near the most bullish this group has been in the window.

Managed money13 · stretched short

Near the most bearish this group has been in the window.

Producers / merchants72 · neutral

Leaning long, but not yet at an extreme.

Swap dealers68 · neutral

Leaning long, but not yet at an extreme.

0 · most bearish50 · mid-range100 · most bullish

COT Index = ((Current − Min) / (Max − Min)) × 100, over the last 3 years

Method credit: the 0–100 normalization goes back to Larry Williams' COT work in the 1980s and was developed and popularized by Stephen Briese, author of The Commitments of Traders Bible.

Managed money — COT index history (0–100, rolling 3 years window)

Disagreement Index

contracts · index 0–100

How far apart two trader groups are right now.

Gap = group A's net position minus group B's, measured in contracts. The Disagreement Index rescales that difference 0–100 against its own last 3 years: 0 = the two groups as close together as they get, 100 = as far apart as they get.

Disagreement Index · vs last 3 years

The two groups are unusually close together.

Current gap (contracts)

+14,201 contracts

Left axis: gap in contracts (positive = Managed money is more net long than Producers / merchants). Right axis: disagreement index, 0–100. Gap tracks Managed money − Producers / merchants.

Latest week by category

What each trader group was holding in the most recent report.

Positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026, compared with the prior weekly report. Positive net = net long; negative net = net short. COT index is measured over the last 3 years.

Category	Long (contracts)	Short (contracts)	Net (contracts)	Weekly change (contracts)	COT index (0–100, 3y)
Non-commercial (large specs)	33,832	40,770	-6,938	-421	16
Commercial (hedgers)	95,050	91,653	3,397	+191	80
Managed money	22,660	32,199	-9,539	-782	13
Producers / merchants	47,261	71,001	-23,740	+818	72
Swap dealers	36,463	9,326	27,137	-627	68

Signal log — Managed money

Every past signal in this market, and what price did afterwards.

Every rolling 8-week window classified as a bullish or bearish divergence, or as convergence where price and positioning agree. Price change is in percent; net change is in contracts.

Each row covers one stretch of weekly reports: the % is the price change over that stretch, the net figure is the change in the group's net position, in contracts.

Convergence — healthy uptrendMay 12, 2026 → Aug 18, 2026price +49.7% · net position +541 contracts
Bearish divergenceFeb 24, 2026 → Jun 16, 2026price +48.1% · net position -13,640 contracts
Bullish divergenceJan 20, 2026 → Mar 17, 2026price -22.5% · net position +4,225 contracts
Convergence — healthy downtrendDec 16, 2025 → Mar 3, 2026price -46.3% · net position +346 contracts
Bullish divergenceDec 2, 2025 → Jan 27, 2026price -26.2% · net position +3,200 contracts
Convergence — healthy downtrendOct 21, 2025 → Dec 30, 2025price -7.1% · net position -798 contracts
Bearish divergenceOct 14, 2025 → Dec 9, 2025price +5.6% · net position -9,107 contracts
Convergence — healthy downtrendMay 13, 2025 → Dec 2, 2025price -48.2% · net position -31,569 contracts
Bullish divergenceApr 22, 2025 → Jun 17, 2025price -12.4% · net position +3,538 contracts
Convergence — healthy uptrendMar 18, 2025 → Jun 10, 2025price +25.8% · net position +1,782 contracts
Bearish divergenceFeb 25, 2025 → Apr 22, 2025price +7.1% · net position -4,533 contracts
Convergence — healthy downtrendDec 10, 2024 → Apr 15, 2025price -25.2% · net position -25,634 contracts

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders — positions as of Tuesday, published the following Friday. All position figures are futures contracts unless the % of open interest view is selected. Positioning is a sentiment tool, not a timing signal. Not investment advice.