Bitcoin (CME)
Bitcoin positioning
Price series: BTC / USD spot · positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026
Neither price nor positioning has moved enough this window to say anything.
Price vs positioning (contracts)
Price on top, and what the big traders were holding underneath it.
COT Index
0–100 · vs last 3 yearsHow extreme today's positioning is compared with this group's own history.
Each group's current net position, rescaled 0–100 against its own high and low over the selected lookback. 0 = most bearish it has been in that window, 100 = most bullish. Unitless by design, so markets of very different sizes can be compared.
Leaning long, but not yet at an extreme.
Near the most bearish this group has been in the window.
Near the most bearish this group has been in the window.
Near the most bullish this group has been in the window.
COT Index = ((Current − Min) / (Max − Min)) × 100, over the last 3 years
Method credit: the 0–100 normalization goes back to Larry Williams' COT work in the 1980s and was developed and popularized by Stephen Briese, author of The Commitments of Traders Bible.
Disagreement Index
contracts · index 0–100How far apart two trader groups are right now.
Gap = group A's net position minus group B's, measured in contracts. The Disagreement Index rescales that difference 0–100 against its own last 3 years: 0 = the two groups as close together as they get, 100 = as far apart as they get.
Historically extreme disagreement between the two groups.
Left axis: gap in contracts (positive = Leveraged funds is more net long than Asset managers). Right axis: disagreement index, 0–100. Gap tracks Leveraged funds − Asset managers.
Latest week by category
What each trader group was holding in the most recent report.
Positions as of Tuesday Sep 15, 2026, published Friday Sep 18, 2026, compared with the prior weekly report. Positive net = net long; negative net = net short. COT index is measured over the last 3 years.
| Category | Long (contracts) | Short (contracts) | Net (contracts) | Weekly change (contracts) | COT index (0–100, 3y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-commercial (large specs) | 16,744 | 14,276 | 2,468 | +944 | 78 |
| Commercial (hedgers) | 107 | 2,764 | -2,657 | -596 | 16 |
| Asset managers | 4,528 | 1,768 | 2,760 | -983 | 4 |
| Leveraged funds | 5,545 | 11,899 | -6,354 | +1,538 | 94 |
Signal log — Asset managers
Every past signal in this market, and what price did afterwards.
Every rolling 8-week window classified as a bullish or bearish divergence, or as convergence where price and positioning agree. Price change is in percent; net change is in contracts.
Each row covers one stretch of weekly reports: the % is the price change over that stretch, the net figure is the change in the group's net position, in contracts.
- Convergence — healthy uptrendJun 30, 2026 → Sep 8, 2026price +20.9% · net position +1,743 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendApr 7, 2026 → Jul 21, 2026price -7.7% · net position -1,846 contracts
- Bearish divergenceFeb 10, 2026 → Apr 28, 2026price +14.2% · net position -1,079 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendDec 9, 2025 → Mar 31, 2026price -21.8% · net position -2,548 contracts
- Bullish divergenceNov 25, 2025 → Jan 20, 2026price -4.2% · net position +752 contracts
- Convergence — healthy uptrendNov 18, 2025 → Jan 13, 2026price +7.9% · net position +1,101 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendJul 15, 2025 → Dec 23, 2025price -25.1% · net position -2,486 contracts
- Convergence — healthy uptrendMar 18, 2025 → Jul 1, 2025price +26.9% · net position +1,010 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendDec 31, 2024 → Apr 15, 2025price -13.4% · net position -3,029 contracts
- Bearish divergenceDec 24, 2024 → Feb 18, 2025price +2.9% · net position -1,643 contracts
- Convergence — healthy downtrendDec 3, 2024 → Feb 4, 2025price -4.7% · net position -869 contracts
- Bearish divergenceNov 12, 2024 → Jan 14, 2025price +12.5% · net position -317 contracts
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders — positions as of Tuesday, published the following Friday. All position figures are futures contracts unless the % of open interest view is selected. Positioning is a sentiment tool, not a timing signal. Not investment advice.