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Report week of Sep 1, 2026

COT report recap — week of Sep 1, 2026

The CFTC published its Commitments of Traders report for Sep 1, 2026. Across the 35 futures markets tracked here, the headline is where money actually moved this week and which groups are sitting at a three-year positioning extreme. 2 markets show a bearish divergence and 2 a bullish one; 17 show price and positioning moving together. Everything below is drawn straight from the CFTC's own weekly release, measured as of Tuesday's close.

Divergences by sector

Equity indices0/6 diverging
Rates1/5 diverging
Currencies2/8 diverging
Metals0/4 diverging
Energy0/3 diverging
Ags & softs0/7 diverging
Crypto1/2 diverging

Biggest weekly position changes

The largest week-on-week swings in net contracts. Big single-week shifts usually follow a macro event, an expiry, or a break of a well-watched level — they are the clearest sign of where large traders actually changed their mind.

MarketGroupNetWeekly ΔCOT idx (3y)Signal
5-Year TreasuryLeveraged funds-2,202,688-90,87870No signal
CornManaged money401,003+83,555100Convergence — healthy uptrend
10-Year TreasuryLeveraged funds-2,062,502+71,83732No signal
Ultra 10-YearLeveraged funds-423,357-51,20012No signal
Sugar #11Managed money233,771+35,754100Convergence — healthy uptrend
2-Year TreasuryLeveraged funds-1,268,034-35,28198No signal
SoybeansManaged money234,920+34,241100Convergence — healthy uptrend
Wheat (Chicago SRW)Managed money14,904+28,501100Convergence — healthy uptrend
Nasdaq 100 / QQQLeveraged funds-14,092+27,14070No signal
Japanese YenLeveraged funds-102,188-25,1469Bearish divergence

Positioning at a 3-year extreme (COT index above 90 or below 10)

A COT index above 90 means this group is about as long as it has been in three years; below 10 means about as short. Extremes mark crowded trades — they say who is already committed, not when the market turns.

MarketGroupNetWeekly ΔCOT idx (3y)Signal
CornManaged money401,003+83,555100Convergence — healthy uptrend
Wheat (Chicago SRW)Managed money14,904+28,501100Convergence — healthy uptrend
SoybeansManaged money234,920+34,241100Convergence — healthy uptrend
Sugar #11Managed money233,771+35,754100Convergence — healthy uptrend
2-Year TreasuryLeveraged funds-1,268,034-35,28198No signal
CopperManaged money72,882-3,38995Convergence — healthy uptrend
Russell 2000Leveraged funds-109,499-11,7996No signal
Japanese YenLeveraged funds-102,188-25,1469Bearish divergence
Mexican PesoLeveraged funds74,362+5,45891Convergence — healthy uptrend

Bearish divergences — price up, big money stepping back

Price has been climbing while the trend-following crowd trimmed or reversed their net long. That gap is a warning, not a sell trigger: it says the rally is running with less institutional backing than it looks.

MarketGroupNetWeekly ΔCOT idx (3y)Signal
Japanese YenLeveraged funds-102,188-25,1469Bearish divergence
BitcoinLeveraged funds-7,620+46987Bearish divergence

Bullish divergences — price down, big money building

Price has been falling while large speculators added to their net long. Historically this is where washed-out moves have found a floor, though it can persist for weeks before price turns.

MarketGroupNetWeekly ΔCOT idx (3y)Signal
30-Year Treasury BondLeveraged funds-303,045-5170Bullish divergence
US Dollar IndexLeveraged funds7,133-2,05662Bullish divergence

New to the COT report?

The guide explains who the trader groups are, what net position means, and how the COT index and disagreement index are calculated.

Read the guide →

Weekly COT recap

One email a week, free: the biggest week-over-week position shifts, every market sitting at a 3-year positioning extreme, and the divergences worth a second look — sent Fridays after the CFTC release. Unsubscribe in one click.

Positioning is measured as of Tuesday and released Friday, so it always lags price. Nothing here is investment advice.