Report week of Aug 4, 2026
COT report recap — week of Aug 4, 2026
The CFTC published its Commitments of Traders report for Aug 4, 2026. Across the 35 futures markets tracked here, the headline is where money actually moved this week and which groups are sitting at a three-year positioning extreme. 1 market show a bearish divergence and 2 a bullish one; 15 show price and positioning moving together. Everything below is drawn straight from the CFTC's own weekly release, measured as of Tuesday's close.
Divergences by sector
Biggest weekly position changes
The largest week-on-week swings in net contracts. Big single-week shifts usually follow a macro event, an expiry, or a break of a well-watched level — they are the clearest sign of where large traders actually changed their mind.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -1,334,181 | +230,113 | 96 | No signal |
| 5-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -2,211,439 | -102,801 | 67 | No signal |
| 10-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -2,231,670 | -75,931 | 21 | No signal |
| Japanese Yen | Leveraged funds | -60,825 | +41,165 | 35 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| S&P 500 | Leveraged funds | -329,999 | -32,523 | 57 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Sugar #11 | Managed money | -87,188 | +29,236 | 34 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Soybeans | Managed money | 132,524 | -27,955 | 76 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Natural Gas | Managed money | -126,933 | -21,107 | 13 | No signal |
| Nasdaq 100 / QQQ | Leveraged funds | -78,333 | -20,035 | 0 | No signal |
| Ultra 10-Year | Leveraged funds | -419,861 | -19,651 | 12 | No signal |
Positioning at a 3-year extreme (COT index above 90 or below 10)
A COT index above 90 means this group is about as long as it has been in three years; below 10 means about as short. Extremes mark crowded trades — they say who is already committed, not when the market turns.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 / QQQ | Leveraged funds | -78,333 | -20,035 | 0 | No signal |
| Copper | Managed money | 75,758 | +10,750 | 100 | Convergence — healthy uptrend |
| Canadian Dollar | Leveraged funds | -101,748 | +747 | 1 | No signal |
| 2-Year Treasury | Leveraged funds | -1,334,181 | +230,113 | 96 | No signal |
| VIX | Leveraged funds | 3,773 | +16,062 | 94 | Bullish divergence |
Bearish divergences — price up, big money stepping back
Price has been climbing while the trend-following crowd trimmed or reversed their net long. That gap is a warning, not a sell trigger: it says the rally is running with less institutional backing than it looks.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell 2000 | Leveraged funds | -85,145 | -10,525 | 24 | Bearish divergence |
Bullish divergences — price down, big money building
Price has been falling while large speculators added to their net long. Historically this is where washed-out moves have found a floor, though it can persist for weeks before price turns.
| Market | Group | Net | Weekly Δ | COT idx (3y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | Leveraged funds | 3,773 | +16,062 | 94 | Bullish divergence |
| RBOB Gasoline | Managed money | 69,885 | -3,992 | 69 | Bullish divergence |
New to the COT report?
The guide explains who the trader groups are, what net position means, and how the COT index and disagreement index are calculated.
Read the guide →Positioning is measured as of Tuesday and released Friday, so it always lags price. Nothing here is investment advice.